Natural and anthropogenic climate variability sgnals in a 237-year-long coral record from the Philippines

Abstract

Both proxy and model studies conducted to understand anthropogenic warming have revealed historical variations in sea-surface temperature (SST) since the industrial revolution. However, because of discrepancies between observations and models in the late nineteenth century, the timing and degree of anthropogenic warming remain unclear. In this study, we reconstructed a 237-year-long record of SST and salinity using a coral core collected from Bicol, southern Luzon, Philippines, which is located at the northern edge of the western Pacific warm pool. The SST record showed volcanic cooling after several volcanic eruptions, including the 1815 Tambora eruption, but the pattern of change differed. Decadal SST variations at Bicol are connected to Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV). Therefore, it is suggested that the PDV conditions at the time of the eruption may have influenced marine conditions, such as the degree and duration of cooling and/or salinity, after the eruptions. Although there were discrepancies in SST variations among the modeled, observed, and proxy SST data from the late nineteenth to early twentieth centuries, SST data from the late twentieth century showed globally coherent anthropogenic warming, especially after 1976. In particular, summer SST in the northwestern Pacific has become more sensitive to anthropogenic forcing since 1976.